Are You Ready for the Day the Lights Go Out?

Because it's coming. Someday in the not-too-distant future we in the United States are going to suffer blackouts and brownouts on a significant and fairly consistent basis.

If we stay on the same course we're currently on, sometime, likely in the next decade or so, we are not going to be able to generate enough power to keep the lights on all the time.

It's not that we don't have the technical know-how or the available resources to provide sufficient electrical power. We do. It's not that power companies are unable to produce enough power to meet demand. They are.

When it happens it will be entirely the result of misguided government policy. Over the last decade or so we have shunned cheap, reliable sources of energy to chase a liberal pipedream and, if we don't change course, it's going to have serious consequences. Although they certainly didn't start this soon-to-be-regretted trend the Obama Administration is accelerating it.

The latest threat is from what is called the Utility MACT Rule or, as it has more accurately been called, the Blackout Rule because of the likelihood it will result in massive losses of power. As a Wall Street Journal editorial this week reported,

The threat is that the EPA is triggering what NERC calls "an unprecedented resource-mix change," with utilities switching to natural gas from coal. For the first time in U.S. history, net coal capacity is in decline. On top of the 38 gigawatts of generation that is already being run below normal levels or slated for early retirement, NERC [National Energy Regulatory Commission] predicts another 36 to 59 gigawatts will come offline by 2018, depending on the "scope and timing" of EPA demands. That could mean nearly a quarter of all coal-fired capacity.

According to the report, "the nation's power grid will be stressed in ways never before experienced" and reliability depends on building new power plants to cover the losses. But the electric industry has only three years to comply under one EPA regulation known as the utility rule that is meant to target mercury and is due to be finalized soon, while many other destructive rules are in the works.

Replacing power is not like replacing a lost cellphone. There are bottlenecks in permitting, engineering, financing and building a new plant and then tying it to the electricity network. Over this same three-year window, NERC estimates that between 576 and 677 plants will need to be temporarily shut down to install retrofits like scrubbers or baghouses.

The EPA could release this rule as soon as December 16.

At a time when our energy needs are increasing we are not only not building enough new power plants we are reducing the capacity we currently have. Here in Nevada, a few years ago we had three coal-fired power plants planned that would have produce 3.75 Gigawatts. But Senator Harry Reid publicly opposed them and over the course of the next couple years these plans dropped off one by one.

This is an absolutely dangerous situation. And policies such as the Blackout Rule are hastening the day when we will no longer be able to produce enough power to meet demand.

When these policies begin causing massive price increases and blackouts, expect the politicians and bureaucrats to demagogue and point their fingers at the power companies. But, as the WSJ explains, "when the brownouts and cost-spikes occur, don't blame the utilities. Blame their regulator." And the politicians, we would add.