Wednesday, November 03, 2010

The Wave That Missed Nevada

The Republican party rode a tsunami of voter disaffection to historic gains in the 2010 midterm elections, picking up, at current count, 66 seats in the House of Representatives and five in the Senate, gaining a majority of governorships and, apparently, flipping 17 state legislatures to GOP majorities. Dissatisfaction with the slow economic recovery and the government's handling of it was a major factor.

Yet in the state arguably hardest hit by and slowest to recover from the downturn the wave was hardly noticeable. One of the biggest targets of the Tea Party movement, Senate majority leader Harry Reid, retained his seat, garnering a majority of the votes cast and incumbent CD-1 representative Shelley Berkley won in a landslide. GOP challenger Joe Heck in CD-3 barely squeaked by incumbent Democrat Dina Titus, who was herself swept in by the Obama wave in 2008 and who would hardly have been a lock under any circumstances, by less than 2,000 votes.

None of the state's constitutional offices switched parties, with the Democrats retaining all 4 offices they held and Republican governor-elect Brian Sandoval, replacing incumbent Jim Gibbons, whom Sandoval defeated in the primary, representing the only new face among them.

While the Republicans were able to achieve gains in both the state Assembly and Senate, the pickup of two seats in the Assembly and one in the Senate is far from extraordinary. Predictions of a four-seat pickup in the Assembly were not uncommon in recent weeks. Although they no longer have a veto-proof majority in the Assembly, Democrats still hold 26 of the 42 seats and maintain control of the Senate 11-10. With Nevada gaining an additional Congressional seat and redistricting on the agenda, these represent potentially powerful majorities.

This also ensures there will be an intense battle over how to close the state's projected budget deficit, which is somewhere between $1.5 and $3.0 billion, depending on who you ask. While voters denied the Democrats a veto-proof majority, they also traded a governor who staunchly (stubbornly, in the opinion of some) opposed tax increases for one whose commitment, I believe, is, shall we say, not so staunch.

It appears that the state with the most to gain by change elected to retain the status quo. In the next 24 months Republican strategists will have to figure out why.

Note: Changed last paragraph from original.

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